Monday, 27 May 2013

NBN: Noalition maths II

What do you get when you subtract $4 billion from $37.5 billion?
With Noalitionomics, you get $20.5 billion. This bodes well for the election promises and possible Budget.
Saving $450 per premise on 9M premises totals $4 billion. That's the maximum CapEx saving possible from the Coalition FTTN ($1350/premise for Fibre vs $900 for VDSL2/FTTN). There are additional costs in dialling back Fibre and swapping to an FTTN fully upgradable to Fibre.

And the small matter of high ($500-$1000) householder out-of-pockets expenses to install Central Splitter or a Network Termination Device (NTD) as in "Did you want a telephone with that?"

It could be they're swapping the missing $13 billion from CapEx to OpEx, but No!, their own figures say they'll also save 10-20% on accumulated OpEx by 2021.

[Update]: 02-Jul-2013. There is also the matter of accumulated operational losses, the difference between Capital Expenditure and whole Project Funding. Although the Coalition NBN Plan has them completing it much "sooner and cheaper" and they claim to be Cash-Flow Positive (Operational Surplus, not Loss) much earlier, they have 50% higher accumulated Operational Losses. How?
  • Coalition unverified estimates
    • CapEx: $20.5 billion
    • Peak Funding: $29.5 billion
      • Accumulated Operational Losses:
        • $9 billion, 50% higher than current NBN Co plan.
  • NBN Co 2012 Corporate Plan
    • CapEx: $37.4 billion
    • Dec 2020 Funding: $43.35 billion
      • Accumulated Operational Losses:
        • $6 billion
Bizarre... What am I missing that nobody else is calling this?

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.